Swimmer profile

Paxton Samuelson

Male15-16West Fargo Flyers Swim ClubND · CENTRAL

SR Rating

NCAA D1 cut anchored • 2026 season
Late developerage 16
Current (today)
653
D2/D3 Realistic

Based on current PBs vs. NCAA D1 cut times.

  • #1100 Free SCY48.36681
  • #21650 Free SCY17:31.86640
  • #3200 Free SCY1:49.54631
  • #450 Free SCY22.78621
Projected (age 17)
791
D1 Mid-Major

Trajectory projected to end of high-school junior year — recruiting peak.

  • #1100 Free SCY45.53816
  • #21650 Free SCY16:17.19799
  • #3100 Fly SCY50.88744
  • #4100 Breast SCY59.18701
College Ceiling (age 21)
1167range 6531167
Blue Chip

College junior year. Range reflects developmental uncertainty — wider for younger swimmers and late developers.

  • #1100 Fly SCYCONF43.801167
  • #2100 Free SCYCONF40.421167
  • #3100 Breast SCYCONF49.951166
  • #41650 Free SCYCONF14:21.271166
Coach viewPIe ≈ 33(2838)typical outcome D3 (86%)
Why the College Ceiling lineup differs: 100 Fly SCY, 100 Breast SCY are improving fastest vs. the NCAA D1 cut, so they rank into the top 4 at age 21 even though they aren't in today’s top 4. That’s a real recruiting signal — shows which events project as the strongest college pathway.

Refine your College CeilingTesting

Tell us about your swimmer’s growth. We use trajectory data by default; your input fine-tunes the ceiling range. Not saved — refresh resets to default.

What this means for Paxton

Building toward recruiting peak — currently D2/D3 Realistic.

Recruiting conversations start in earnest at the end of sophomore year (NCAA contact rules let coaches reach out June 15 of sophomore year for most sports including swimming). Your projected rating (791 → D1 Mid-Major) is the more meaningful number for that window. Continue building broad event coverage — the top-4 weighting rewards multiple strong events.

Maturity context: Your data shows late-developer trajectory — continued steep improvement past age 15. That's exactly the kind of pattern that under-rates well-developed seniors but signals strong upside.

What time drops unlock D1 Mid-Major

Each row shows the time required in that event alone to push SR Rating Current from 653 to 750, holding the other three events fixed. Only physiologically reachable drops (≤15% per event) are shown. In practice swimmers improve across multiple events at once, so real progress will lift faster than these single-event deltas suggest.

EventCurrentTargetΔ
100 Free SCY48.3643.61−4.75s
1650 Free SCY17:31.8615:43.29−108.57s

Best school matches

Top 5 of 133 curated programs that actually fit. Use the picker below to evaluate any other school.

Pilot data

Truman State University

MenGLVCD2

Match

Your Team Fit

929

Recruit median

910

In line with this program's typical recruit — a natural fit.

Azusa Pacific University

MenPacWestD2

Match

Your Team Fit

929

Recruit median

860

In line with this program's typical recruit — a natural fit.

Carson-Newman University

MenSACD2

Match

Your Team Fit

929

Recruit median

850

In line with this program's typical recruit — a natural fit.

Minnesota State University, Mankato

MenNSICD2

Match

Your Team Fit

929

Recruit median

920

In line with this program's typical recruit — a natural fit.

St. Cloud State University

MenNSICD2

Match

Your Team Fit

929

Recruit median

890

In line with this program's typical recruit — a natural fit.

Selection: Realistic-tier first (sorted by Team Fit), padded with closest Reach or Stretch only if fewer than 5 Realistic matches exist. Display order: D1 → D2 → D3 within the picks. How is this calculated?

Custom college fit

Pick a specific school to see the full per-event analysis.

682 programs catalogued across NCAA D1, D2, and D3. Roughly half have real scraped rosters; the rest run on calibrated placeholder data while the T-166 cleanup expands coverage.