Swimmer profile

Natalie Welch

Female15-16Central Arkansas Swim ClubAR · CENTRAL

SR Rating

NCAA D1 cut anchored • 2026 season
age 16
Current (today)
503
Building Base

Based on current PBs vs. NCAA D1 cut times.

  • #150 Free SCY27.71520
  • #2100 Free SCY1:01.16502
  • #3200 Free SCY2:15.11477
  • #4100 Back SCY1:07.94465
Projected (age 17)
530
Building Base

Trajectory projected to end of high-school junior year — recruiting peak.

  • #150 Free SCY27.11555
  • #2100 Free SCY1:00.17527
  • #3200 Free SCY2:13.12498
  • #4100 Back SCY1:07.46475
College Ceiling (age 21)
565range 503658
Building BaseD2/D3 Realistic

College junior year. Range reflects developmental uncertainty — wider for younger swimmers and late developers.

  • #150 Free SCY26.41600
  • #2100 Free SCY59.00559
  • #3200 Free SCY2:10.78525
  • #4100 Back SCY1:06.89488
Coach viewPIe ≈ 60(4068)typical outcome D3 (92%)

Refine your College CeilingTesting

Tell us about your swimmer’s growth. We use trajectory data by default; your input fine-tunes the ceiling range. Not saved — refresh resets to default.

What this means for Natalie

Building toward recruiting peak — currently Building Base.

Recruiting conversations start in earnest at the end of sophomore year (NCAA contact rules let coaches reach out June 15 of sophomore year for most sports including swimming). Your projected rating (530 → Building Base) is the more meaningful number for that window. Continue building broad event coverage — the top-4 weighting rewards multiple strong events.

What time drops unlock D2/D3 Realistic

Each row shows the time required in that event alone to push SR Rating Current from 503 to 600, holding the other three events fixed. Only physiologically reachable drops (≤15% per event) are shown. In practice swimmers improve across multiple events at once, so real progress will lift faster than these single-event deltas suggest.

EventCurrentTargetΔ
50 Free SCY27.7124.31−3.40s
100 Free SCY1:01.1653.45−7.71s

Best school matches

Top 5 of 162 curated programs that actually fit. Use the picker below to evaluate any other school.

Pilot data

Union College (NY)

WomenLiberty LeagueD3

Safety

Your Team Fit

562

Recruit median

490

Above this program's typical recruit median — you're a top-of-class addition.

Gettysburg College

WomenCentennialD3

Safety

Your Team Fit

624

Recruit median

550

Above this program's typical recruit median — you're a top-of-class addition.

Carthage College

WomenCCIWD3

Safety

Your Team Fit

518

Recruit median

430

Above this program's typical recruit median — you're a top-of-class addition.

Drew University

WomenLandmarkD3

Safety

Your Team Fit

489

Recruit median

400

Above this program's typical recruit median — you're a top-of-class addition.

Dickinson College

WomenCentennialD3

Safety

Your Team Fit

607

Recruit median

500

Above this program's typical recruit median — you're a top-of-class addition.

Selection: Realistic-tier first (sorted by Team Fit), padded with closest Reach or Stretch only if fewer than 5 Realistic matches exist. Display order: D1 → D2 → D3 within the picks. How is this calculated?

Custom college fit

Pick a specific school to see the full per-event analysis.

682 programs catalogued across NCAA D1, D2, and D3. Roughly half have real scraped rosters; the rest run on calibrated placeholder data while the T-166 cleanup expands coverage.